In Today’s Issue:

• Need to Know DeFi Ecosystem Shifts

• This Week in Hemi: Updates, Protocol Highlights, New Partnerships, and More

• Predictive Signals

• Community Spotlight

• This Week’s Hemi Yield Opportunities

Q: How many bitcoins will ever exist?

Balancer Exploit Triggers $128 Million Loss; Berachain Executes Emergency Hard Fork:

A multichain Balancer V2 exploit drained around $128 million across Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base. Berachain validators halted the network to deploy a fork aimed at asset recovery and containment. The incident underscores the need for rapid response mechanisms in interconnected DeFi ecosystems.

Restaking Consolidates — EigenLayer Near $20 Billion; Babylon Leads BTC Restaking Momentum:

EigenLayer TVL ≈ $19.7 billion while Babylon reports around 56,800 BTC staked (~$6 billion). Both protocols illustrate how yield and security primitives are standardizing across chains. Hemi’s modular Bitcoin-anchored architecture sits within this broader shift toward BTC-backed economic security. 

Pendle and ETHena Lead “Productive Liquidity” Rotation:

Allocators are shifting toward yield-native protocols after recent volatility. Pendle’s TVL and fee revenue remain elevated, while sUSDe yields hold steady near 5.4% percent, demonstrating sustained demand for transparent cash-flow strategies.

Weekly DeFi Market Snapshot

• Total DeFi TVL: ≈ $142 billion (-1.3 % week-over-week)
  

• Stablecoin Supply: ≈ $307 billion (-0.4 % 7 days)

Risk flows shifted from long-tail assets towardBTC-secured and fee-based yield venues following the Balancer incident.

$HEMI Trading Contest Wraps on Aster DEX: $400K In Rewards

Following Hemi’s spot and perpetual listings on Aster DEX, traders have generated over $134 million in cumulative volume during the campaign. Hemi now stands at the top of Aster’s token chart in terms of total volume traded. Now complete, the $400,000 reward pool, distributed based solely on trading activity, has driven steady participation and is set for distribution.

Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/aster-pro/

Protocol & Ecosystem Updates

The recently published Hemi Economic Model outlines the future decentralization, economic security, and incentives for the Hemi ecosystem, defined in the Hemi Improvement ProPOsal: HIPPO-2.

Partner Spotlight

Ploutos, a new non-custodial lending protocol, has been deployed on Hemi, accompanied by an upcoming incentivization campaign and a killer UI/UX, further strengthening Hemi’s rapidly expanding DeFi ecosystem.

Learn more about the partnership.

Macro and Crypto Positioning

Fed Policy Outlook

• Polymarket: For the Dec 10, 2025, FOMC, traders put ~73% odds on a 25 bp cut, ~25% on no change. That’s a clear easing bias into year-end. 

Bitcoin Price Probabilities

• Polymarket “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025?” now shows the crowd clustered in the $120k–$140k zone, with ~37% odds of tagging $120k, ~22% for $130k, ~12% for $140k, and ~8% for $150k at some point during 2025. On the downside, traders still price ~48% odds of seeing $90k or lower before year-end. So, path risk remains elevated. (Total market volume ≈ $47.6M.) 

Volatility & positioning

• Options markets (DVOL/IV dashboards) indicate elevated implied volatility vs. late-summer lows, consistent with the recent shock-and-reprice tape. 

Seasonality context

• Q4 has historically been BTC’s strongest quarter, but November’s “~42% average” is skewed by 2013; median is ~8.8%.

Key Takeaways

• Constructive but jumpy: Prediction markets lean bullish-tilt (rate-cut odds + mid-range BTC targets), yet nearly 50% odds of a $90k tag this year highlight path risk after the latest volatility.
  

• Macro Drives Near Term: Short-term price action is being driven by economic data releases and headline risk, not long-range targets. Implied volatility remains the best indicator of market stress.

*APY varies by strategy, custody jurisdiction, and market conditions.

Merkl connects users to reward programs across the Hemi ecosystem.
Explore the full list of yield opportunities here.

A: Only 21 million bitcoin will ever be created, a number set by the immutable code configured by Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.