In Today’s Issue:

• Need to Know DeFi Ecosystem Shifts

• This Week in Hemi: Updates, Protocol Highlights, New Partnerships, and More

• Predictive Signals

• Community Spotlight

• This Week’s Hemi Yield Opportunities

Q: How often does the Bitcoin halving cycle occur?

Ethereum Governance Faces Cross-L2 Coordination Crunch

Multiple Ethereum L2 teams are responding to cross-rollup MEV leakage after renewed discussion around shared sequencing. Blockworks reports that L2s are weighing joint PBS frameworks as fragmentation increases latency, fee variance, and ordering complexity across major rollups. The industry is now openly debating whether sequencing should consolidate, federate, or modularize.

Bitcoin Layer Activity Hits a New All-Time High

According to Glassnode and Messari summaries, aggregate Bitcoin L2 activity jumped again this week — with inscriptions-based and non-inscriptions-based traffic both rising. The surge reflects demand for Bitcoin-secured execution environments as volatility returns.

Stablecoin Supply Expands as Capital Rotates Into Safety

DefiLlama data shows total stablecoin supply ticking upward for a second consecutive week, signaling conservative positioning after recent volatility. USDe, USDT, and USDC all saw net inflows. The rotation is consistent with risk-off positioning before Thanksgiving-week macro prints.

Weekly DeFi Market Snapshot

Total DeFi TVL: ≈ $142B

Stablecoin Supply: ≈ $309B

Liquidity is rotating into stablecoins, BTC-secured strategies, and transparent fee-generating protocols as markets digest macro uncertainty.

Protocol & Ecosystem Updates

hemiBTC Expands Crosschain Presence

hemiBTC is now live as an Omnichain Fungible Token across Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, and BNB Chain. Advanced users can already bridge via contract interactions, and Stargate support will soon bring standard UI access. An analytics dashboard is coming soon, offering visibility into hemiBTC’s supply, backing, and crosschain flows.

V2 Testnet Deployment & Infrastructure Upgrades

The Pop Points conversion system is nearly ready, slightly delayed by an unusually heavy week of:

• V2 Testnet deployments

• Database upgrades

• A large Bitcoin Testnet 3 reorg

V2 is now rolling out as a non-breaking Testnet update.

The next major milestone, the Fusaka mainnet upgrade, will be breaking and require node operator updates once instructions are published.

ZK Provability Work Progressing Behind the Scenes

The team continues advancing a more modular ZK proof system designed to unify verification across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Hemi. This will serve as the base layer for several long-term features as the protocol decentralizes.

Other Dev Updates

Additional updates included improvements to VBK tooling, prep for the expanded bug bounty program, upcoming RPC rate-limit changes encouraging heavy users to switch to dedicated providers

Macro and Crypto Positioning

• Fed Policy Outlook: Polymarket continues to imply a ~71% probability of a 25 bp cut at the December FOMC meeting, with markets assigning ~60% odds that the Fed will deliver at least three cuts in 2026.
  

• Risk Sentiment: U.S. equities and crypto-adjacent stocks saw renewed pressure through mid-November, with analyst desks highlighting uncertainty around regulatory actions and shifting corporate guidance.
  

• Crowd Ranges: Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025?” contract again shows traders clustering around the $110K–$140K band as the most probable outcome. Prediction markets hold ~45% odds that BTC revisits ≤$90K before year-end, reflecting elevated sensitivity to macro data and liquidity conditions.

Key Takeaways

• Divergence Ahead: Prediction-market odds for a December Fed rate cut remain elevated (~65–71%), but risk-off equity and crypto sentiment suggests markets are more cautious than price targets alone indicate.
  

• Structured Unease: With Polymarket pricing ≈ 45% odds of Bitcoin revisiting ≤ $90K before year-end, despite a clustered peak-range at $110K–$140K, traders are clearly hedging for volatility rather than full bullish conviction.

*APR varies by strategy, custody jurisdiction, and market conditions.

Merkl connects users to reward programs across the Hemi ecosystem. Explore the full list of yield opportunities here.

A: Bitcoin’s halving events occur cyclically, based on block heights, and take place roughly every 4 years.